Expected points added (EPA) is an NFL metric that is becoming more and more popular in evaluating a player’s performance. Applied to receivers, EPA can be used to quantify which pass-catchers are generating the most value for their team. The term EPA kept on coming up the other day as related to Kadarius Toney of the Kansas City Chiefs. EPA tells a narrative of just how poor his performance was in the opening game of the season.
The metric is used to determine the impact a play has on the team’s chances of scoring. It is based on down, distance, and field position. Used for close to ten years now by analytic organizations such as Pro Football Focus, EPA takes a precedence over other metrics. Expected Points added is now a priority over counting statistics such as receptions and receiving yards. It is a better indicator of true productivity. Another sport comparison is a basketball player who shoots 8 for 24 with no three pointers, and five points from the foul line. 21 points. Is that player playing winning ball?
The expected points added metric is determined by the expected points for a given play based on a down, distance and field position. It uses NFL data that has been generated based on thousands of different game situations. For example, a 1st and 10 from one’s own 25-yard line is worth an average of 0.60 expected points. A 3rd and 5 from your opponent’s 45 is worth 2.23 expected points. These values are determined based on the likelihood of different outcomes like touchdowns, field goals, punts or turnovers.
Calculating Expected Points Added
When a pass play occurs, the EPA is calculated by degerming the difference between the expected points at the start of the play and the expected points at the end. For example, if a receiver catches a 20-yard pass on 3rd and 15 from midfield (1.62 EPA), that improved field position might be worth 3.96 expected points. So the difference (2.34) is what is added to the players worth. This is calculated with each pass attempt. Receivers who improve their team’s expected point value on their targets produce high EPA total, players with low or negative EPA cost their teams expected points.
In the 2022 season, Miami Dolphin Tyreek Hill led all NFL receivers with an EPA of +134. He was followed by Davante Adams (+115), Justin Jefferson (+112), Stefon Diggs (+108) and CeeDee Lamb (+101).
Elite Pass Catchers and EPA
Elite pass-catchers exceed +100 EPA. An average EPA falls into the +50 to +80 range. The following three receivers seemingly had very productive years based on catches and receiving yards. But EPA tells a different story:
- Jaylen Waddle with the Dolphins had 1,356 yards receiving and 8 TDs, yet his EPA was +54.
- DeVonta Smith in Philadelphia had a 916 yard, 7 TD season, his EPA was +58.
- Brandon Aiyuk with the San Francisco 49ers had 78 catches for 869 yards. His EPA was +62.
An eye sore on the list is Indianapolis’s Parris Campbell, now a New York Giant, who had one of the lowest EPAs last year. Her registered at -35.
While metrics has influenced seemingly all aspects of major league baseball, I expect EPA will soon have a significant influence in professional football as well. Metrics such as EPA will soon influence how coaches call plays as well as whom General Managers look to sign in the off-season, I expect that it will also be used by the front office in contract negotiations as well
Barry Schustermann
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