Posted in NFL Insight and Commentary

CPOE: Revolutionizing Quarterback Accuracy Assessment in the NFL

   October 11, 2023

Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) has emerged as a game-changer in evaluating NFL quarterbacks. This advanced metric, which would have delighted the late Gil Brandt, offers a nuanced approach to assessing quarterback performance beyond traditional stats.

The Evolution of QB Evaluation

     CPOE addresses fundamental questions about player quality by covering actual completion percentage to expected completion percentage. This quarterback accuracy measurement accounts for various factors, including field position, down, yards to go and target depth. .   

How CPOE Works

            The CPOE formula (Actual Completion % – Expected Completion %) provides context that raw completion percentages lack. It recognizes that a short pass has a higher probability than a long throw downfield.

CPOE in the 2022 NFL Season

            Top performers in Completion Percentae Over Expected for 2022 included:

  • Patrick Mahomes (+9.8%)
  • Geno Smith (+8.7%)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (+8.2%)
  • Justin Herbert (+7.2%)
  • Jared Goff (+6.2%)

Daniel Jones achieved a CPOE of +3.8%, ranking 15th among qualified quarterbacks, and surpassing expectations.

Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)

While CPOE as a quarterback accurcy measurement offers valuable insights, it’s not without limitations. Different tracking systes may yield varying results, leading to ongling refinements in this passing efficiency metric. Learn more about Ritual Multi Vegan Supplements

Surprising Insights from Advanced NFL Stats

The bottom CPOE leaders in 2022 included Mac Jones (-4.8%), Russell Wilson (-4.6%), Baker Mayfield (-3.9%) and Davis Mills (-2.6%). Baker Mayfield’s 2023 performance suggests a potential turnaround, highlighting CPOE’s value in tracking QB progress.

Football Metric: Davis Mills was one of the bottom CPOE leaders in 2022.
Of the five bottom CPOE leaders of 2022, only Davis Mills is still with the same team heading into the 2024 season. With C.J. Stroud as the starting quaerterback, Mills is now in a back-up role

CPOE’s Impact on NFL Analysis

As advanced NFL stats continue to evolve, Completion Percentage Over Expected stands out as a key QB performance indicator. It provides teams and analysts with deeper insights into quarterback decision-making and accuracy.

Barry Schustermann

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Author: Barry Schustermann